Tesla FSD Approved in the Netherlands — EU-Wide Vote Not on October 6 Agenda (September 2026 Update)

📝 Updates

  • Addendum, September 30, 2026: Croatia’s State Office for Metrology (DZM) accepted the RDW provisional approval domestically — eighth EU country. Rollout date not announced. Croatia row added to the status matrix. → Jump
  • Addendum, September 26, 2026: The draft agenda for the October 6 TCMV meeting lists further discussion of the Dutch Article 39 request but no vote. The next vote date is unconfirmed. → Jump

The body text is kept as written at the time of drafting. Earlier updates are listed in the revision history.

🌐 This is an English translation.

This article was translated from the Japanese original. Read it here: テスラFSD オランダ承認|EU展開と日本導入への影響を徹底解説【2026年9月更新】.

Table of Contents

Introduction

Tesla Model 3 Highland driving through Dutch tulip fields and windmills

“In February 2026, FSD will be approved in Europe and China.”

That’s what Elon Musk said at Davos in January 2026. The Chinese government denied it within 24 hours. February came and went in Europe. Then March. Nothing happened. And then, on April 10, the Netherlands finally granted official approval.

As it turned out, this time it was the real deal.

Looking back at the history of Tesla’s FSD European rollout, a cycle of “optimistic announcement → last-minute delay → new date announcement” has repeated itself over the four years since 2022. Tesla owners in the EU have experienced this so many times that “believe it when you see it” has become their motto.

So what made this April 10 different?

This article looks back at that question. We’ll review the regulatory and technical background leading up to the Netherlands approval, dissect the mechanism for EU-wide rollout, and consider what this means for Tesla owners in Japan. At the end, we revisit the question raised in the introduction: This time it was real — and the approval came through, with conditions. Here’s the full story, step by step.

Tesla’s 4-Year War with EU Regulations — A History of Delays

Tesla FSD European Approval — The Full Story of the April 10 Netherlands Decision

First, let’s review the history. It has been four years since Tesla first said FSD European deployment was “coming soon.”

DateTesla/Musk StatementActual Result
Summer 2022Musk: “FSD coming to Europe soon”Never materialized
End of 2024“European approval planned for early 2025”Did not happen
November 2025Tesla Europe: “RDW has committed to February 2026 approval”RDW denied and corrected the next day
January 2026 (Davos)Musk: “Approved in Europe and China by February”China denied within 24 hours, Europe also missed
March 20, 2026Original approval date (Musk’s declaration)Delayed due to ongoing document review; changed to April 10
April 10, 2026RDW official approvalApproved ✔

Looking at this alone, skepticism was entirely rational. However, the developments in March 2026 were structurally different from past delays.

In every past delay, the lack of approval only became clear after the fact. The classic example was RDW denying Tesla’s “February approval” announcement the very next day. This time, Tesla reached the concrete milestone of “completing the final test phase and submitting all required documents,” and RDW itself issued an unprecedented official statement confirming it was “in the final stage of evaluation.”

The phrase “we won’t rush the final decision” was certainly a cause for concern. But the expression “final stage of evaluation” had never appeared in any previous delay situation. That’s exactly what made this April 10 different — and ultimately, the approval came through.

Why the Netherlands? — Dissecting the Article 39 Strategy

Why Tesla chose the Netherlands — Dissecting the Article 39 Strategy

Why has Tesla concentrated so many resources on the Netherlands, just one EU member state? The answer lies in the use of Article 39 (EU Type-Approval Exception Measures) — a legitimate regulatory pathway that sidesteps conventional type-approval.

Why Tesla FSD Doesn’t Fit Existing Frameworks

To certify driver assistance functions in Europe, compliance with UN R-171 (DCAS: Driver Control Assistance Systems regulation) is required. The problem is that UN R-171 is a “rules-based” framework. Tesla’s FSD (Supervised) uses neural networks (AI) to assess surroundings in real time and respond to any road situation. Fitting this into regulations designed for systems that “only operate under defined conditions” inevitably creates parts that don’t fit.

After 18 months of negotiations with RDW, Tesla rejected partial compliance with regulations on the grounds that “full compliance with regulations would compromise safety,” and instead pursued a strategy using Article 39 (Article 39 of EU Directive 2018/858/EC).

What is Article 39?

Article 39 is a framework that allows member states to grant provisional domestic approval for “new technologies not yet regulated,” under certain conditions. Approval takes effect as a provisional measure for up to 18 months (9 months + 9-month extension).

Tesla used this mechanism to build a “Netherlands First strategy” — obtaining approval limited only to the Netherlands, then aiming to spread it across the entire EU.

Tesla Wasn’t the First — BMW and Ford Precedents

It’s worth noting that type-approval for advanced driver assistance systems is not new. In its official statement, RDW cited the following precedents:

  • BMW: Already holds approval for hands-off highway driving combined with automated lane changes
  • Ford (Blue Cruise): Obtained Article 39 approval for hands-off highway driving

RDW stated that “type-approval for advanced driver assistance systems is not something new” and that it “issues approximately 50,000 type-approvals annually.” Tesla’s FSD approval is not unprecedented special treatment — it is a legitimate use of existing regulatory frameworks.

What Has Tesla Been Doing for 18 Months?

From fall 2024 to March 2026, the scale of the test program conducted by Tesla Europe and RDW was as follows:

  • Over 1.6 million km of FSD road testing across 17 EU countries
  • Over 13,000 customer ride-alongs
  • Over 4,500 track test scenarios
  • Thousands of pages of documentation covering over 400 compliance requirements
  • Submission of multiple safety research papers

On March 20, 2026, Tesla Europe announced it had formally completed the final vehicle testing phase and submitted all documentation required for UN R-171 approval and Article 39 exception measures. RDW confirmed it was currently in the final evaluation stage.

What Happens After Approval — The EU Domino Mechanism

EU Domino Rollout Flow After Netherlands Approval

With RDW approval now confirmed (April 10), how will EU-wide rollout proceed? Here’s how, in three steps.

Step 1: Netherlands Domestic Approval Takes Effect

RDW has issued type-approval under Article 39 for the Netherlands. FSD (Supervised) is now available on Tesla vehicles equipped with HW4/AI4 in the Netherlands. Approval is limited to FSD v14 series (for HW4), and HW3 owners are not covered.

Step 2: Application to the European Commission & Member State Vote

In its official statement, RDW laid out the specific steps required for EU-wide rollout:

  1. RDW submits the application for EU-wide use to the European Commission
  2. All member states vote on the application
  3. A majority vote within the responsible committee (TCMV) is required for approval

If approved, FSD becomes valid across all member states at once. This is not a country-by-country recognition process — it’s a single vote that applies EU-wide. Tesla is targeting EU-wide approval by summer 2026, but opposition from major European automakers’ home countries at the TCMV level is a risk.

StepTimeline (Tesla estimate)Scope
Netherlands RDW ApprovalApril 10, 2026 (Approved ✔)Netherlands only
EU Major Countries RecognitionSpring–Early Summer 2026Country by country
TCMV Vote / EU-Wide ApprovalSummer 2026 (optimistic)EU 27 countries
HW3 FSD v14 Lite EU RolloutQ4 2026–2027HW3 users

Note for HW3 Users

This approval is limited to HW4 (AI4) vehicles running FSD v14 series. HW3 users will need to wait for FSD v14 Lite, targeted for Q2 2026 in North America.

Impact on Japan — The Day the Netherlands Becomes a Precedent

Tesla FSD Japan Rollout — Shinjuku Public Road Testing Begins

March 6, 2026: What Started in Shinjuku

Tesla Japan announced testing FSD (Supervised) in Shinjuku, Tokyo, with the goal of domestic introduction in 2026. Tesla Japan’s President Hashimoto stated in a Nikkei interview that he aims to implement it within 2026.

Japan’s Regulatory Hurdles and Breakthrough

The expected regulatory breakthrough is the formal adoption of UNECE’s new ADS regulations in June 2026, using a Safety Case approach.

In October 2025, Japan’s MLIT also established a Special Modification System, creating the legal basis for OTA delivery to approximately 40,000 Tesla vehicles in Japan.

ScenarioConditionsTimeline
OptimisticJune 2026 UNECE adoption → MLIT swift implementation → Tesla submits safety dataFall–Winter 2026
CautiousDelay in domestic implementation post-UNECE → Additional data needed for Japan-specific traffic rules2027 or later

FSD v14.3 — What the Reasoning Feature Changes

FSD v14.3 AI Real-Time Reasoning Feature

On March 19, 2026, Elon Musk posted: “FSD v14.3 is currently in testing. Wide release within a few weeks.” What sets v14.3 apart is the full integration of real-time reasoning into the FSD decision-making process across all domains.

VersionHardwareReleaseKey Feature
FSD v14.2.2.5HW4 onlyCurrent (March 2026)Partial reasoning implementation
FSD v14.3HW4 onlyWithin weeks (April~)Full reasoning integration, nav improvements
FSD v14 LiteHW3Q2 2026 target (North America first)v14 features optimized for HW3

Risks and Concerns — Reasons Not to Celebrate Just Yet

Tesla FSD Approval Risks and Concerns

NHTSA Investigation Escalation

The US NHTSA has upgraded its investigation into 3.2 million FSD-equipped vehicles regarding low-visibility safety to an Engineering Analysis. A recall recommendation could affect European and Japanese approval processes.

European Manufacturer Lobbying

TCMV votes could see political opposition from major European automaker home countries. The risk is not technical but political and industrial-policy driven.

Tesla Europe Brand Damage

European registrations fell approximately 27.8% year-on-year in 2025. FSD approval may not directly translate to sales recovery.

The Provisional Nature of Article 39

Approval under Article 39 is valid for up to 18 months (9+9 months). Permanent service requires final formal compliance with UN regulations.

Conclusion — Why “This Time Was Different”

Tesla FSD European Approval — The Full Story of the April 10 Netherlands Decision

Let’s return to the question posed at the beginning: “What made this April 10 different from past delays?” — The question we raised in the original version of this article has been answered in the update sections above. Here, we review why the original analysis proved correct.

Three things were different.

First, Tesla reached the concrete milestone of completing all document submissions. We were standing at the exit of the review process, not the entrance.

Second, RDW itself officially confirmed it was in the final evaluation stage. For a regulatory authority to comment at all was unusual, and characterizing it as “the final stage” had never occurred in any previous delay situation.

Third, approval was specifically limited to FSD v14 for HW4 vehicles only — a realistic, data-backed application rather than an all-models, all-versions rollout.

Ultimately, the conclusion is clear: “This time was structurally different from every time before.” For the first time in four years of delays, concrete proof of progress existed. We had finally arrived at a phase worth watching — and that’s exactly what came to pass.

“On April 10, we watch closely” — that’s what we wrote in the original version of this article. And the approval did come through. The history of delays has finally reached its first real turning point.

[April 11, 2026 Update] Approval Confirmed — RDW Finally Gives the Green Light on April 10

On April 10, 2026, the Netherlands’ vehicle certification authority RDW (Rijksdienst voor het Wegverkeer) officially approved Tesla’s FSD (Supervised) under Article 39. It had been four years since Musk first said “FSD coming to Europe soon” in the summer of 2022. After delay upon delay, the “believe it when you see it” moment has finally arrived.

In the introduction to this article, we wrote: “I believe this time is different — but with caveats.” And indeed, the approval came through, with conditions attached. The two unprecedented milestones — “all documents submitted” and “RDW in final evaluation stage” — proved the analysis correct.

The approval covers HW4 (AI4) vehicles running FSD v14 series only. HW3 users will continue to wait for “FSD v14 Lite.”

Key Takeaways from the RDW Official Statement — EU FSD Is Different Software from the US Version

On the same day as the approval, RDW published an official statement clarifying several important points.

First, the EU version of FSD Supervised runs different software from the US version. RDW explicitly stated that “the software versions and functionalities of American and European vehicles cannot be compared one-to-one.” In Europe, vehicles require pre-market type-approval from vehicle certification authorities — unlike the US self-certification system — with stricter safety and environmental standards. US-based FSD reviews and reports cannot be directly applied to the European version.

Second, strict driver monitoring is built into the system. When FSD Supervised is active, multiple sensors monitor whether the driver’s eyes are on the road and hands are available to take the wheel. Hands do not need to be on the steering wheel, but must be able to grip it immediately when needed. If inattention is detected, progressive alerts are triggered; persistent inattention results in the system temporarily locking itself. RDW stated that “reading a newspaper behind the wheel is neither permitted nor possible.”

Third, RDW positively assessed the system’s safety. It stated that “this system takes over multiple driving tasks, and when used correctly, makes a positive contribution to road safety” and that “due to continuous strict driver monitoring, the system is safer than other driver assistance systems.” However, it also emphasized that “FSD Supervised is not a self-driving vehicle. The driver remains responsible at all times and must continue to participate in traffic.”

[Update] EU Summer Rollout — Will the Domino Start Falling?

(Written in April 2026 — for the current status, see the June 11, 2026 update below.)

With the Netherlands approval confirmed, we now move to Step 2 of the “EU Domino” outlined earlier in this article. According to the RDW’s official statement, RDW will submit an application to the European Commission, and if a qualified majority (at least 15 of 27 member states representing 65% of the EU population) votes in favor, FSD will become valid across all EU member states at once.

Tesla Europe has stated that “EU-wide approval is possible by summer 2026,” and Barclays analyst Dan Levy has also commented (Investing.com) that “other EU countries can recognize the Netherlands approval, enabling EU-wide approval during the summer.” A scenario where Germany, France, Belgium, Spain, Italy, and others progressively recognize the approval by summer is becoming increasingly realistic.

However, as discussed in the “What Happens After Approval” section above, formal EU-wide approval via TCMV majority vote is a separate hurdle. The risk of political opposition from representatives of major European automaker home countries remains. The optimistic scenario points to summer; more cautious estimates suggest late Q3 to Q4.

Additionally, Norway — while not an EU member state — has already issued Tesla a 2-year FSD testing permit and is likely to leverage the Netherlands approval data to advance its own domestic approval. The UK is also expected to follow under regulatory cooperation frameworks, though its independent review process means approval would likely come in 2027 or later.

[Update] Unofficial FSD Crackdown — Tesla Disables “Jailbroken” FSD En Masse

On April 9 — the day before the Netherlands approval — Tesla began remotely disabling FSD functionality on vehicles that had been unofficially activated using third-party devices across Europe, China, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and other regions (Tarantas News, Teslarati).

These “jailbreak” tools — USB module devices costing around €500 — connect to the vehicle’s CAN bus to forcibly unlock FSD. They were distributed in Poland, Ukraine, and other countries, with over 100,000 installations in China alone.

Tesla disabled FSD functionality via OTA update and sent in-car notifications and emails with the following warning:

“An unauthorized third-party device has been detected on your vehicle. As a safety precaution, certain driver assistance features have been disabled.”

In some cases, permanent FSD deactivation has been reported. Even owners who legitimately purchased FSD may lose access if an unofficial device is detected.

This move is not unrelated to the timing of the Netherlands approval. Unofficial FSD use creates risks that could complicate the regulatory certification process, meaning Tesla needed to ensure a “clean slate” ahead of formal approval. Now that official European rollout has become a reality, eliminating this gray zone is a rational decision.

[June 11, 2026 Update] Eight Weeks Later — Five Countries, One-Day Intervals, and a Geneva Vote

When the April update above was written, the open question was whether the EU domino would actually start falling. Two months later, the answer is in — though not through the route this article originally mapped. The EU-wide vote remains stuck. The dominoes fell anyway, one country at a time. (Full chronological addenda are maintained on the Japanese version of this article.)

🟢 The Mutual-Recognition Domino — Five Countries in Eight Weeks

Since the Dutch approval, four more countries have recognized it under EU mutual-recognition rules:

CountryApprovedNote
🇳🇱 NetherlandsApr 10RDW type approval (UN R171 + Article 39 exemption)
🇱🇹 LithuaniaMay 20First application of mutual recognition (approved May 18, announced May 20)
🇪🇪 EstoniaMay 29Third country; built on its own autonomous-driving track record since 2017
🇩🇰 DenmarkJun 9Provisional approval after an independent review of the technical file
🇧🇪 BelgiumJun 10One regional signature, legally valid nationwide

Two of these deserve a closer look. Denmark had been named among the Nordic countries raising concerns about FSD at the EU level — and then approved it nationally after its own independent review, concluding the system would contribute positively to road safety. Belgium is a founding EU member of 11.7 million people whose federal structure splits vehicle-approval competence across three regions — yet an authorization granted in one region is legally valid nationwide, so the Flemish mobility minister’s single signature on June 10 opened the entire country.

The intervals tell the story: 40 days from the Netherlands to Lithuania, then 9 days, then 11, then a single day from Denmark to Belgium. This is no longer a “small-country exception.”

🟡 The EU-Wide Track Is Stalled

Meanwhile, Step 2 as outlined in this article — the bloc-wide vote — has not advanced. The Netherlands notified the European Commission on April 13. RDW presented its Article 39 file to the Technical Committee on Motor Vehicles (TCMV) on May 5; no vote was held. The June 30 agenda allocates time for further discussion only. Industry trackers now place the earliest realistic bloc-wide vote in October or December, possibly slipping into early 2027. A qualified majority requires at least 15 of 27 member states representing 65% of the EU population, and reservations from Sweden, Finland and Norway (a non-voting EEA member) complicate the math.

The irony: the stall of the EU-wide track is precisely what accelerated the national domino. Countries that might have waited for Brussels concluded there was no near-term Brussels decision to wait for.

🔵 Geneva, June 24 — The UN Votes

The bigger regulatory event this month is not in Brussels but in Geneva. The agenda for the 199th session of UN WP.29 (June 23–26) has been published, and June 24 is voting day for: the new UN Regulation on Automated Driving Systems (1958 Agreement), the parallel UN GTR on ADS (1998 Agreement, covering the US and China), the 02 series of amendments to UN R171 (DCAS) — the Level 2 regulation directly relevant to FSD Supervised — a new 05 series for UN R79, the steering regulation that blocked FSD in the first place, and the ~60-document FADS package adapting existing regulations for automated vehicles.

If these pass, the structural mismatch this article described — FSD having no clean place in the rulebook — starts to close at the source, reducing reliance on Article 39’s “exception” route. We will update after the June 24 vote.

[July 3, 2026 Update] No TCMV Vote on June 30 — Next Session October 6

On June 30, the 118th TCMV met in Brussels. As reported in the June 9 update, the FSD file was treated as “discussion continues” — no vote. The meeting is closed, so the substance of debate is not yet reported. Two surrounding facts are now firm: the next meeting date, and Sweden’s formal objection.

Next TCMV: October 6 — The First Realistic Vote Window

The next post-summer TCMV is set for October 6. FSD-approval tracker Roland Pircher posted on July 1 that this is the session he expects a vote. Of the June 9 outlook (“earliest vote October or December”), the earlier date is now concrete. Versus Tesla’s original goal of “EU-wide availability summer 2026,” that is a slip of three months or more.

The same week also has MVWG (Motor Vehicle Working Group) technical work scheduled; open issues such as speed behavior and winter performance will be pressed there. Germany’s FSD test-drive / ride-along program hit its June 30 deadline; whether it extends is a near-term watch item.

Sweden Had Already Recommended Formal Opposition

The other firm fact: Sweden’s stance was upgraded from “concern” to formal opposition. In an April 30 letter to TCMV, the Swedish transport authority recommended opposing EU-wide rollout, arguing that “systematically allowing an automated system to exceed the legal speed limit” is incompatible with European road-safety standards. Named target: Speed Offset — a design that lets drivers set speeds above the posted limit.

At the unofficial-concern stage reported via Reuters internal mail (“frankly surprised”) in the Japanese May 6 addendum, the weight was different from a formal letter of recommendation. Under qualified majority (15 of 27 states and 65% of population), votes of large states (DE/FR/IT) are decisive; a formal opponent pressing concrete technical conditions (e.g. disable Speed Offset) raises October uncertainty. Tesla still has OTA room to disable Speed Offset for Europe.

Country-level approvals remain live in five states (NL, Lithuania, Estonia, Denmark, Belgium). The EU-wide base slides to October 6. This article’s final verification point updates to that date. Further addenda will follow.

[September 30, 2026 Update] European FSD Status Matrix (After Dutch Approval)

How EU countries moved after the Dutch RDW approval (10 April 2026). Last updated: 30 September 2026. Snapshot only — live status is maintained on the Tesla FSD news watch / approval tracker.

Approval “labels” fall into three types. ① Original type approval = Netherlands only: RDW’s own review under UN R171 plus Article 39 exception (EU 2018/858). ② Mutual recognition = accept another state’s type approval without own tests (Lithuania, Estonia). ③ Legislative route = bill aligning to the Dutch framework (Greece). Large states (DE/FR/IT) use none of ①–③ and wait for EU-wide TCMV approval.

CountryStatusDateLegal basisNotes
🇳🇱 Netherlands✅ Approved2026/4/10① Original: UN R171 + Article 39 (EU 2018/858)EU first. Source approval others reference. RDW 18 months / 1.6M km
🇱🇹 Lithuania✅ Approved2026/5/18② Mutual recognition (EU 2018/858)No own tests. Public/OTA from 5/20. 2nd country
🇪🇪 Estonia✅ Approved2026/5/29② Mutual recognition3rd. Autonomous-driving track record since 2017. Rollout announced as “soon”
🇩🇰 Denmark✅ Approved2026/6/9② Mutual recognition + own review4th. Shifted from opposition camp. Rollout announced as “soon”
🇬🇷 Greece🟡 Bill prepTBD③ Legislative routeOperator hiring in Athens = data-collection signal
🇧🇪 Belgium✅ Approved2026/6/10② Mutual recognition (Flanders signature valid nationwide)5th. 5,000 km local tests completed. Rollout announced within days
🇸🇮 Slovenia✅ Approved (authority-confirmed)2026/9/7 (announced)② Mutual recognition: RDW provisional approval recognised under Art. 39 (Regulation (EU) 2018/858; published by AVP on 9/8)6th. The Traffic Safety Agency (AVP) published its recognition of the RDW provisional approval on 9/8. Rollout “soon,” no date
🇨🇿 Czechia✅ Approved2026/9/21② Mutual recognition: RDW provisional approval recognised under Art. 39 (Regulation (EU) 2018/858)7th. Czech Ministry of Transport official statement. UN-R171 + Art. 39 provisional track. Rollout soon
🇭🇷 Croatia✅ Approved2026/9/28 (approval) / 9/29 (Tesla announcement)② Mutual recognition: DZM accepted the RDW provisional approval (Regulation (EU) 2018/858)8th. Per Hina report quoting DZM’s letter. On 9/10 DZM had said it was not accepted for now. Rollout “soon”, no date
🇪🇸 Spain🟡 In progressTBDNational approval / testing (unconfirmed detail)Listed in CARBA reporting
🇮🇪 Ireland🟡 In progressTBDDoT confirmed 5/10 talks with Tesla/NSAIAuthority-confirmed; timing TBD
🇫🇷 France🟡 On-road tests2026/9/3Authority tests (two Tesla-supplied cars). Declined approval 7/22 over speeding and urban attention; moved to on-road tests 9/3. No mutual recognitionTests due mid-to-late September; input for the 10/6 EU-wide vote. Not a customer release
🇮🇹 Italy🔴 Wait EU—Await EU-level decisionSame
🇩🇪 Germany🟡 Review/test—National review/testing (unconfirmed detail)Key market; CARBA progress group
🇸🇪 Sweden🔴 Formal oppose—4/30 letter recommending TCMV oppose EU-wide (Speed Offset)“New vehicles only” hint still provisional
🇳🇴 Norway⚠️ Cautious—Scrutinizing winter conditions vs Dutch reviewEEA; no TCMV vote (can question)
🇫🇮 Finland⚠️ Cautious—Skeptical with SE/NO (speed, ice, naming)Can matter under QMV

Legend: ✅ approved / 🟡 in progress / 🔴 waiting EU / ⚠️ cautious / ❓ silent. “—” = not approved / TBD. June 30 TCMV ended with no vote; next meeting October 6 (first realistic EU-wide vote window). Germany/Ireland/Spain progress and Sweden’s “new vehicles only” condition remain provisional on single sources (e.g. CARBA) until confirmed. For Slovenia, following Tesla’s announcement (7 September), the Traffic Safety Agency (AVP) published on the government website on 8 September that it recognised the RDW provisional approval under Art. 39. Czechia is based on the Ministry of Transport’s official recognition of the RDW provisional approval under Art. 39 (21 September 2026). Croatia is based on DZM accepting the RDW provisional approval domestically (approved 28 September 2026, per Autonet and the Hina report).

[September 3, 2026 Update] France Moves to On-Road Tests

On September 3, French Transport Minister Philippe Tabarot announced that France is “entering the on-road testing phase” with two FSD (Supervised) cars supplied by Tesla. The announcement followed a video call with Elon Musk the day before. What was granted is testing by the authority — not type approval and not a release to customers. French owners still cannot enable FSD.

🔴 The Two Reasons France Said No in July

Three months after the Dutch approval, France declined national approval on July 22. In a video posted on X, Tabarot said the “safety trade-offs are not sufficient, as things stand, to approve.” He named two issues: the system tolerates exceeding the legal speed limit, and it does not keep the driver’s attention adequately in complex situations — urban roads, lane changes, intersections, roundabouts. The speed point overlaps with Sweden’s formal objection over Speed Offset described in the July 3 update. France also reaffirmed that it will not use mutual recognition and will wait for the EU-wide framework.

🟡 Tesla’s Data Release Became the Turning Point

On September 1, Tesla published an “Article 39 – FSD (Supervised) Dashboard”: more than 100 million km driven in Europe, a collision rate about one-quarter that of manual driving (1/4.1), and zero critical safety events across 230,000-plus scenario tests in six cities. All figures are Tesla’s own, self-reported. Tabarot and Musk spoke on September 2, and the announcement came on September 3. The minister said French authorities had been working with Tesla “for several months” on the technical adjustments that would let France support type approval. On the speed issue, French press (Journal de l’Économie, Economie Matin) reported that Tesla’s data — in 98% of cases where FSD exceeded the limit, it was at or below the speed of surrounding traffic — was part of the basis for the decision.

🟠 Toward the EU-Wide Vote — Testing and Voting Yes Are Different Things

According to Reuters, France aims to finish the tests in mid-to-late September so that it can “take a position” at the EU-wide vote expected within months. The next TCMV is October 6. Under qualified majority voting (15 of 27 states, 65% of population), the German, French and Italian votes are decisive. Of the three large states listed as “waiting for the EU” in the July 3 matrix, France will now go into the vote with its own test results in hand. But testing is not the same as voting yes. How the two July objections fare in those tests is the October 6 question itself.

[September 8, 2026 Update] Slovenia Becomes the Sixth EU Country

At around 19:00 local time on September 7, Tesla Europe posted on X: “FSD Supervised now approved in Slovenia 🇸🇮” — “Rollout will begin soon.” Elon Musk quoted the post. That is 89 days after Belgium’s announcement (June 10). The country-by-country domino, stalled through the summer, moved again with its sixth piece. What is known at this point, however, is Tesla’s announcement: within what we could verify, there is no formal confirmation from the Slovenian authority and no published legal basis.

🟢 Tesla’s Announcement Came First; the Authority Has Not Confirmed

Slovenian daily Svet24 reported on the evening of September 7 that the Slovenian Traffic Safety Agency (Javna agencija RS za varnost prometa, AVP), which is responsible for the approval, had not confirmed it. According to the paper, AVP had explained some months earlier that it does not evaluate the technology on its own and also takes the European Commission’s findings into account. 24ur carried a one-line reaction from Infrastructure and Energy Minister Jernej Vrtovec (“Razvojna Slovenija” — “Development-oriented Slovenia”), but none of the reports we could check showed a formal AVP confirmation or an approval document. The same goes for the legal basis: within the reports we checked, none states it. Following the pattern of the previous five countries, mutual recognition of the Dutch source approval (EU Regulation 2018/858) is the natural reading, but until the authority publishes, this article treats it as the author’s inference.

The rollout was announced only as “soon,” with no date. Svet24 notes that in the previous five countries, deployment followed approval within days to weeks. The list of countries awaiting approval that Tesla’s Ashok Elluswamy showed at CVPR in June, as reported by TeslaHubs, included Slovenia.

🟡 Interval Between Announcements: One Day → 89 Days — How to Read the Summer Gap

Re-listing the domino by announcement date (Lithuania: approved 5/18, announced 5/20). Netherlands (4/10) → Lithuania (5/20): 40 days. → Estonia (5/29): 9 days. → Denmark (6/9): 11 days. → Belgium (6/10): 1 day. → Slovenia (9/7): 89 days.

What happened during the gap, in date order. The June 30 TCMV held no vote and set the next session for October 6, and Sweden’s formal objection came to light (July 3 update). On July 22 France declined national approval, and on September 3 it moved to authority tests (September 3 update). Within the public information we could check, no new approval by mutual recognition was announced in between. The sixth piece is Slovenia, population roughly 2.1 million; Germany, France and Italy have not reached customer-facing approval.

In the June 11 update, this article wrote that the axis of the divide had shifted from “size of the country” to “whether there is a reason to wait.” On that reading, the gap would be explained by the first wave of countries with no reason to wait having already moved. But 89 days alone cannot separate the summer holidays, Tesla’s order of applications, or a wait-and-see after France’s refusal. Nor is it known why Slovenia came in September. What can be said is only this: the June observation that small countries move first has not broken with the sixth piece.

For the record, the sequence: Tesla published its Article 39 dashboard on September 1; the French transport minister and Musk spoke on September 2; France moved to authority tests on September 3; the Slovenia announcement came on September 7. Causation is unknown.

🔵 What to Watch — AVP’s Publication, GRVA in September, and October 6

Three things to watch. First, AVP’s formal confirmation and the publication of the legal basis. Second, the OTA start date. Third, the October 6 TCMV — whether a vote actually takes place is not yet fixed. If Slovenia is also mutual recognition, six countries will be standing on the same foundation: the Dutch provisional approval. As described in the June 11 update, if the European Commission formally rejects FSD, the Dutch provisional approval lapses six months later, and the approvals that accepted it lapse with it. The more countries approve, the less a rejection is “one country’s problem.”

Before October 6, there is Geneva. The 26th session of GRVA (the Working Party on Automated/Autonomous and Connected Vehicles) meets on September 14–18. The provisional agenda dated June 29 (ECE/TRANS/WP.29/GRVA/2026/23) lists, under item 4(a), the extension of the mandate and future tasks of the Informal Working Group on Automated Driving Systems (IWG on ADS); under 4(d), amendment proposals to UN Regulation No. 157 (ALKS); and under 6(a), an amendment proposal to UN Regulation No. 171 (DCAS). R171 is the regulation underlying the Dutch approval of FSD Supervised; what is on the table is a proposal clarifying the provisions on the validity and compliance verification of safety management systems (GRVA/2026/31). Items 4(d) and 6(a) are “resumed consideration” carried over from the previous session, and GRVA is a separate forum from the October 6 TCMV vote. Still, three weeks before the earliest realistic EU-wide vote window, the underlying regulation itself is on the desk.

[September 21, 2026 Update] Czechia Becomes the Seventh EU Country

On 21 September 2026, the Czech Ministry of Transport stated on its website and on X (@min_dopravy) that it had recognised, for domestic use, the provisional type approval for Tesla FSD Supervised issued by the Dutch authority RDW. Tesla Europe posted the same day: “FSD Supervised now approved in Czechia” and “Rollout will begin soon.” Fourteen days after Slovenia’s announcement (7 September). The national domino moved to a seventh piece.

🟢 The Ministry Officially Recognised the RDW Provisional Approval

The ministry’s account is clear. The basis is the provisional EU type approval RDW issued on 10 April 2026: the technical frame is UN Regulation No. 171 (DCAS), and the exemption path is Article 39 of Regulation (EU) 2018/858. Czechia recognised that provisional approval under the same Article 39. The system remains SAE Level 2 driver assistance — the driver must supervise at all times and keeps responsibility.

The contrast with the Slovenia addendum (8 September) is how thick the authority primary is. Czechia published a ministry press release and an official X post the same day, including the legal basis (recognition under Article 39). This is not a Tesla-only announcement.

🟡 From June’s “Wait for the EU” to September Recognition

In June the Czech ministry had publicly treated the RDW approval as Netherlands-only and preferred EU-level coordination. The 21 September statement frames the domestic recognition as the result of months of expert assessment, EU-level discussion, and talks with Tesla. This is mutual recognition of the existing RDW provisional approval — not a new original type approval cut by Prague.

On announcement dates, Belgium (10 June) → Slovenia (7 September) was 89 days; → Czechia (21 September) is 14 days. After the summer gap, small-to-mid-sized member states are lining up again.

🔵 What to Watch — OTA and October 6

Two points matter most. First, the customer OTA start date (nothing firmer than “soon” yet). Second, whether the 6 October TCMV actually holds an EU-wide vote. Approved countries whose legal basis we could verify stand on the Dutch provisional approval. Slovenia stands on the same footing: on 8 September the Traffic Safety Agency (AVP) published its recognition of the RDW provisional approval under Article 39. The linked lapse risk if the Commission formally rejects FSD is unchanged from the June framing on provisional-approval expiry.

[September 26, 2026 Update] No Vote on the October 6 TCMV Agenda

The European Commission’s draft agenda for the 119th TCMV meeting, dated September 11, allocates 11:45–12:10 on October 6 to a “continuation of discussions on request of the Netherlands for an Art. 39 authorisation.” It lists no vote on that request.

The July 3 update treated October 6 as the first realistic EU-wide vote window. The current draft agenda no longer supports that expectation. It does not name Tesla; the link to FSD rests on the preceding proceedings and reporting about the Dutch request. The next vote date has not been confirmed. The agenda itself grants no EU-wide approval, records no formal rejection, and does not change existing national authorisations.

[September 30, 2026 Update] Croatia Becomes the Eighth EU Country

Croatia’s homologation authority, the State Office for Metrology (DZM), accepted domestically the provisional EU type approval that the Dutch RDW issued on 10 April 2026. The approval date was 28 September, as the Croatian outlet Autonet reported on 29 September, citing DZM. The same day, Tesla Europe posted on X: “FSD Supervised now approved in Croatia” and “Rollout will begin soon.” On a publication-date basis, that is eight days after Czechia (21 September). The national domino moved to an eighth piece.

🟢 DZM Accepted the RDW Provisional Approval

A report distributed by the Croatian news agency Hina quotes DZM’s letter: Croatia accepts the provisional EU type approval RDW issued on 10 April 2026 under Regulation (EU) 2018/858. DZM says it took into account RDW’s explanations on continuous oversight, monitoring and reporting during use, and on the procedures for handling safety findings that could affect the exemptions granted. This is not a new original approval; it is the mutual-recognition track, accepting an existing provisional approval.

🟡 Eighteen Days After “Not Accepted for Now”

According to Autonet on 10 September, DZM had said the RDW approval was not accepted for the time being. It gave two reasons: the requested documentation and evidence on key safety questions had not been provided, and colleagues in other member states had raised concerns. It also indicated that no decision was expected before the discussion on the future of EU rules.

Eighteen days later, on 28 September, the approval came. As with Czechia (21 September update), a country that had been waiting moved without waiting for the EU-wide vote.

🔵 What to Watch — the OTA and October 6

There is no rollout date yet; Tesla said only “soon.” The draft agenda dated 11 September for the 6 October TCMV lists only continued discussion of the Dutch Article 39 request; no vote item appears (26 September update). Croatia, like the other approved countries, rests on the Dutch provisional approval. If the European Commission formally rejects it, the Dutch approval is revoked six months later and the approvals recognised elsewhere follow. Eight approved countries do not change that structure.

Frequently Asked Questions

Has the Netherlands approval been confirmed?

Yes. On April 10, 2026, RDW officially approved FSD (Supervised) under Article 39. The approval covers HW4 (AI4) vehicles running FSD v14 series. Since then, Lithuania, Estonia, Denmark and Belgium have approved it via mutual recognition. On September 7, 2026, Tesla announced approval in Slovenia (on September 8 the Slovenian Traffic Safety Agency published its recognition of the RDW provisional approval under Article 39). On September 21, 2026, the Czech Ministry of Transport recognised the RDW provisional approval domestically — the seventh EU country. On September 28, Croatia’s State Office for Metrology (DZM) accepted it as well, making eight; the rollout date has not been announced. The EU-wide TCMV vote is still pending — realistically autumn 2026 or later.

Does this mean FSD is coming to Japan soon?

Not directly. Japan requires independent certification from MLIT. While the Netherlands approval can serve as a reference model for technical data, Japan’s approval process is separate. Earliest outlook: fall–winter 2026. Cautious estimate: 2027 or later.

What about HW3 owners?

The European approval targets HW4 (AI4) vehicles running FSD v14 series. HW3 users need to wait for FSD v14 Lite, targeting Q2 2026 in North America. European and Japanese availability would follow.

Is FSD (Supervised) autonomous driving?

No. It is SAE Level 2 advanced driver assistance. The driver must maintain constant supervision and be ready to intervene at all times.

References

Revision history

  • Addendum, September 21, 2026: Czech Ministry of Transport recognised the RDW provisional type approval (UN-R171 + Article 39 of Regulation (EU) 2018/858) domestically — seventh EU country. Czechia row added to the status matrix. → Jump
  • Addendum, September 8, 2026: Tesla Europe announced FSD (Supervised) approval in Slovenia, the sixth EU country. Within what we could verify, no formal confirmation or legal basis from the Slovenian authority yet. Slovenia row added to the status matrix; GRVA 26th-session agenda (Sept. 14–18), including ADS, UN R157 and UN R171 items, added. → Jump
  • Addendum, September 3, 2026: France moved from its July 22 refusal to on-road tests with two Tesla-supplied FSD cars. France row in the status matrix updated. → Jump
  • Update, July 3, 2026: June 30 TCMV held no vote — next session is October 6. Sweden recommended formal opposition over Speed Offset. → Jump
  • Update, June 11, 2026: Eight weeks later — five countries, one-day intervals, and a Geneva vote. → Jump
  • Update, April 11, 2026: Approval confirmed — RDW gives the green light on April 10. → Jump